A Strategic Path to Sustainability

Gordon P. Smith, Ph.D., Alan Thompson
DSER Strategy Group, Bowling Green, KY 42104

Abstract

The question of sustainability is key for the future of manned orbital spaceflight. Many have focused primarily on technology advances as the means to encourage private commercialization, which is necessary for sustainability. This approach is well-accepted, as it has succeeded with commercial satellites and suborbital spaceflight. However, in the case of manned orbital space flight, we continue to struggle with the question of sustainability. Despite the last fifty years of technological advances and targeted national policies, something is still preventing private commercialization from embracing manned orbital spaceflight.

The question is more subtle than technology alone can answer. Pursuing this issue from a strategic perspective, we examine attempts to transition from government-dependent space programs to independent commercial ventures capable of generating economic strength, and identify a key strategic issue that these attempts overlooked.

Our findings show that a subtle, yet critical, shift is needed in the manned orbital space flight industry model, addressing on-orbit emergency response. Similar support is found in numerous parallel transportation industries, and is responsible for reduced operational and insurance costs contributing to their sustainability. Our strategic proposal capitalizes on this support in the context of the manned space flight industry, and explores its ramifications across all aspects of space operations, manned and unmanned.

Presented at ISDC 2011 - Huntsville. Paper and presentation charts are not available.